Capital Gold Group Report: Historical Trends Reveal Metals Downturn at Onset of 2nd Qtr Expected -- Creates Buying Opportunity for Long-Term Investors
By Wendy Lynn Ip
April 28, 2008
The data revealed that, for the months of April to June, the metals
showed a marked decline from anywhere between 1% to as high as 9%.
Moreover, the metals would generally pick up around August to December,
recovering from the losses, as well as pressing upward through January
of the following year. Again, this does not give us an absolute
indication that we will observe the same pattern for 2008, as the
credit crisis and economic conditions can play on the markets
differently. I can say that, so far, the data on the metals’
performance has turned up as expected and if the metals continue along
this path, then we should expect to see a positive year-end growth. The
average year-end growth from January to December for the metals over
the past nine years of data came in at around 13%.
April 28, 2008
Last week, we observed some weakness in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. With good long-term support steaming from economic weakness, inflationary pressures, and a declining dollar value over the course of this past year, many question why we have observed this type of shift in sentiment as well as wonder whether the sentiment is transient.
I
will wager that the sentiment is transient. Furthermore, the past nine
years of data (1999 through 2007) reveals to us that, individual
economic and market factors aside, we should actually expect a downturn
in the metals around the onset of the second quarter.
The data revealed that, for the months of April to June, the metals
showed a marked decline from anywhere between 1% to as high as 9%.
Moreover, the metals would generally pick up around August to December,
recovering from the losses, as well as pressing upward through January
of the following year. Again, this does not give us an absolute
indication that we will observe the same pattern for 2008, as the
credit crisis and economic conditions can play on the markets
differently. I can say that, so far, the data on the metals’
performance has turned up as expected and if the metals continue along
this path, then we should expect to see a positive year-end growth. The
average year-end growth from January to December for the metals over
the past nine years of data came in at around 13%.
