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  • Tightening U.S. presidential race has spurred haven demand
  • Volatility is increasing in gold and silver ahead of vote

Donald Trump has lit a fire under the gold market.

Bullion is being whipsawed as a tightening U.S. presidential race spurs haven demand. Prices rose as much as 0.8 percent Thursday, near a four-week high, before giving up the gains and more.

“If Donald Trump is elected next week, we think gold can go anywhere shy of $1,400,” Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If Hillary Clinton is elected, we think gold can probably fall by $20, $30. So the clear skew in this trade is to the upside.”

gold prices chart

Investors are seeking to navigate the crosscurrents thrown up by next week’s vote, with a possible victory for Trump buoying bullion prices amid concern that his presidency will hurt growth. Gold’s advance has unfolded even as the U.S. central bank prepares the ground for an interest-rate hike next month, saying Wednesday it only needed “some” further evidence that inflation and employment were moving toward its goals.

Bullion for immediate delivery traded little changed at $1,297 an ounce by 10:02am in New York, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. On Wednesday, prices rallied to a four-week high of $1,308.02.

Randgold Resources Ltd. will seek new mining projects as rising gold prices and cost cuts increased earnings by 55 percent in the third quarter, Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow said.

“We’re going to have a bumpy ride for the next couple of quarters,” Bristow said in a Bloomberg TV interview Thursday, referring to prices. “This promise of an interest-rate hike and of course the U.S. elections are all having short-term impacts on the gold price.”

Silver Retreats

Silver dropped 1.3 percent, the most since Oct. 6. The metal, often seen as gold’s cheaper, wilder cousin, on Wednesday gained to $18.7415 an ounce, the highest since Oct. 4.

Clinton, the Democratic candidate, saw her odds of a victory falter after a probe into an unauthorized e-mail server was reopened. Election uncertainty may drive precious metals higher as investors flee to havens, Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities and real assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a note.

A Trump win “would see likely see a wave of risk aversion,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Gold prices have already moved higher as a result of the U.S. presidential election becoming less clear. Assuming polls continue to tighten, gold prices should continue to edge higher.”

In other precious metals:

  • Platinum and palladium also fell in the spot market.
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